“Greater dispersion across asset classes can provide attractive alpha opportunities for both long and short positions. In our view, alpha diversification is more reliable across various macro regimes than beta diversification, making relative-value decisions more resilient to macro shocks.”
- Dimitri Curtil is the Global Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at Newton Investment Management where he oversees the team of portfolio managers and researchers responsible for the firm’s systematic multi-asset strategies. Dimitri also leads the development and enhancement of the research underpinning the strategies.
The market environment following 2008’s global financial crisis was characterised by an abundance of liquidity, effectively zero cash rates and negative correlation between stocks and bonds. With investors sensing that the central-bank ‘put’ was firmly in place to underpin markets, risky assets moved inexorably higher. Waves of central-bank quantitative easing (QE) created an inherent fragility in financial markets, with the abundant liquidity driving asset prices higher and rendering relative-value strategies less effective.
In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic created such turbulence that inflation surged. Cash rates rose to more than 5%, eroding risk premiums and setting a high hurdle for risky assets. Traditional hedges such as government bonds did not provide diversification.
This drastic change created new challenges for client portfolios. Not only did diversification diminish as correlations between asset classes became less negative or outright positive, but inflation became a risk, particularly given its uncertain trajectory. Moreover, the shift into private-market strategies during the QE era created an unintentional bias towards illiquid assets. Furthermore, high cash rates mean the net present value of long-term cash flows is now lower than during the period of QE.
Is your portfolio prepared for this new regime?
Read More